In a fast-paced retail environment, merchandisers today rely on fashion trend forecasting as a strategic tool to make informed decisions, reduce waste, and maximize profits. If you envision yourself thriving in a fashion industry career, knowing how fashion forecasting works and how merchandisers use trend forecasting to remain competitive could help you stay ahead in your own work.
What Is Fashion Trend Forecasting?
Fashion trend forecasting refers to the process of predicting upcoming consumer preferences in the fashion industry through the detailed analysis of historical data, consumer insights, and other factors.
What kinds of fashion trends can forecasting predict? Anything from the next preferred fabrics and colors to emerging styles can be forecasted with the right information and context — empowering savvy fashion brands to stay one step ahead in this highly dynamic industry.
Types of Fashion Trend Forecasting
In the fashion business, trend forecasting can be categorized as short-term or long-term. Here are the differences between each type and what influences them:
Short-Term Forecasting
Merchandisers may use short-term forecasting to predict specific style details that may be popular within the next few seasons, including details like popular colors and fabrics. Often, this type of forecasting is carried out using the latest data and sales figures as well as cultural or pop culture happenings.
This type of forecasting allows brands to make informed decisions about their immediate manufacturing and inventory management needs.
Long-Term Forecasting
Long-term fashion trend forecasting, on the other hand, tends to focus on higher-level trends within the fashion industry — including major industry shifts, technological advancements, and new customer values. These shifts often occur over a longer period of time compared to short-term trends, sometimes spanning several years into the future.
Leveraging historical trends, demographic information, and other valuable insights, professionals in the fashion industry can use long-term forecasting strategies to make big-picture changes and position their brands for success.
Why Fashion Merchandisers Need to Stay Ahead
In today’s fashion world, trends emerge rapidly, and merchandisers strive to stay on top of what’s coming next in order to anticipate consumer demand. What’s considered fashionable one minute may very well be “out” the next.
Brands that use reliable trend forecasting techniques may be better able to outperform the competition by offering the trendiest options that consumers are seeking without delay. This, in turn, can further strengthen brand identity and loyalty with consumers. Meanwhile, by focusing efforts on manufacturing and acquiring trendy fashion items that will actually sell, brands can minimize waste/overproduction while maximizing profitability.
Key Responsibilities of a Fashion Forecaster
So, what exactly does it mean to be a fashion forecaster? Responsibilities in this line of work may differ from one day to the next but typically include:
- Analyzing market data
- Monitoring global influences
- Studying designers and runways
- Leveraging social listening tools
- Collaborating with merchandisers and designers
The Process of Fashion Trend Forecasting
In predicting the industry’s next big trends, merchandisers and forecasters generally follow some basic steps while relying heavily on their own research, technology, and consumer data to bring it all together.
Step 1 – Research and Observation
During the initial stages of the process, forecasters conduct extensive market research that often involves getting out in the fashion world and directly observing both runway shows and street styles in major cities. This independent research, along with observing signs of early trends on social media, can help forecasters pinpoint emerging and relevant styles.
Step 2 – Consumer Behavior Analysis
Understanding consumer behavior is another central aspect of fashion trend forecasting. Specifically, forecasters look closely at how consumers behave and the kinds of values that reflect in their fashion choices when predicting the next big trends. For example, as consumers shift toward preferring more environmentally-friendly fashion choices, this has caused sustainable fashion to emerge as a long-term trend.
Step 3 – Technology and Data Tools
Contemporary fashion forecasters also have a wealth of tools at their disposal that can enhance their own predictions. Many forecasters, for instance, use social media analytics tools to more closely examine consumer sentiment and keep an eye on popular fashion influences. Others may rely on retail data analytics tools to gain insights from sales data, search data, and more.
Additionally, data analysis and forecasting tools can be valuable in extracting insights from raw data — enabling forecasters to make more accurate predictions.
Step 4 – Global Influence Tracking
These days, social media “influencers” play a major role in the next big fashion trends, which is why forecasters rely on global influence tracking to keep a close eye on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook for signs of emerging trends. Forecasters consider other global factors, too (including political shifts and economic fluctuations) to help them make predictions about the next changes in the industry.
The Pendulum Swing in Fashion Forecasting
Another critical determining factor that forecasters use to predict up-and-coming fashion trends is known as the “fashion pendulum,” a theory that trends tend to shift back and forth between extremes over time. Past trends are often revived with a modern twist; for instance, consider the resurgence of 1970s-era flare or “bell-bottom” jeans in recent years.
Having a grasp of such predictable cycles allows merchandisers to strategically plan their product launches to meet consumer demand.
Tools Merchandisers Use to Predict Trends
In addition to the pendulum theory, merchandisers have numerous tools at their disposal to help them predict the next trends. A few examples include:
- WGSN Fashion – This trusted source in the fashion industry offers data-driven insights, trend forecasting reports, and expert analyses.
- Pantone Color Reports – Formal publications from the Pantone Color Institute help merchandisers and forecasters predict which palettes and shades are likely to stand out in upcoming seasons.
- Social Media Listening Tools – Platforms like Brandwatch, Mention, and Sprout Social can be used to pinpoint style trends as they emerge on popular social media networks.
- AI & Big Data Analytics – These tools can leverage advanced data analysis, pattern recognition, and real-time monitoring to help forecasters predict up-and-coming trends.
How to Build Your Skills in Fashion Forecasting
For those interested in becoming a fashion merchandiser or forecaster, aim to stay up to date with fashion publications, designers and collections, trend data, and consumer behavior. You might conduct your own research to identify patterns or practice synthesizing data utilizing various analytics tools — while staying in touch with fashion culture alongside your own creativity or passion for the industry.
Earning a degree in fashion merchandising could also be an excellent starting point. In this type of specialized program, you may have the opportunity to learn about consumer analytics, forecasting reports, the study of cultural trends, and other practical skills to help you build your trend forecasting competence.
Final Thoughts on Fashion Trend Forecasting
Trends in the fashion industry can change at a moment’s notice, and the job of the knowledgeable forecaster is to anticipate what’s coming next. With the right knowledge and expertise, these professionals can lead fashion brands to greater success by accurately predicting emerging trends, optimizing inventory management, and building a stronger brand identity that resonates with consumers.
Learn More in a Fashion Merchandising & Retailing Degree Program
Serious about taking the next step toward a career in fashion trend forecasting? It may be time to pursue a Bachelor of Science in Fashion Merchandising and Retailing from Johnson & Wales University Online. In this four-year, industry-relevant program, you’ll have the opportunity to explore coursework in relevant areas of the field such as forecasting, strategic planning, and supply chain management. Plus, because this program is offered entirely online, you can pursue your degree on your own terms while enjoying personalized support and experience-based learning.
For more information about completing your degree online, complete the Request Info form, call 855-JWU-1881, or email [email protected].
